https://www.wheresyoured.at/reality-check/
This is another good missive from Ed Zitron about the enormous PR scam that is AI, on the commercial level.
'So you're saying this experimental software launched to an indeterminate amount of people that barely works is going to make OpenAI $13 billion in 2025, and $29 billion in 2026, and later down the line $125 billion in 2029? How? How?
What fucking universe are we all living in? There's no proof that OpenAI can do this other than the fact that it has a lot of users and venture capital!
In fact, I think we have reason to worry about whether OpenAI even makes its current projections. In my last piece I wrote that Bloomberg had estimated that OpenAI would triple revenue to $12.7 billion in 2025, and based on its current subscriber base, OpenAI would have to effectively double its current subscription revenue and massively increase its API revenue to hit these targets.
These projections rely on one entity (SoftBank) spending $3 billion on OpenAI's services, meaning that it’d make enough API calls to generate more revenue than OpenAI made in subscriptions in the entirety of 2024, and something else that I can only describe as “an act of God.”'